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Super Bowl LVII Preview
Kansas City is a +1.5 underdog with a 51-point total when the Chiefs and Eagles meet Sunday at 6:30 pm.
We’ve put together a Super Bowl LVII betting guide to help new Arizona sports bettors better understand what wagers are available and how to bet them.
Kansas City Chiefs current form
It’s hard imagining the Kansas City Chiefs as an underdog to anyone. The Chiefs come into this game riding a seven-game winning streak dating back to their Week 11 away victory over the Denver Broncos, having the league’s best QB commandeering the top offense in the NFL this year.
This is the 3rd Super Bowl in five years for the Chiefs, and QB Patrick Mahomes has been at the helm all five years and has a record of 64-16 as the Chiefs’ starting QB. Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5250), touchdown passes (41) and suffered an ankle sprain that limited his ability to run the football.
TE Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ top target–the two have hooked up for 496 receptions, 6,319 yards, and 48 touchdowns in 78 games. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been solid in their 1st season with the Chiefs, and RB Jerick McKinnon has been a steadying force catching balls out of the backfield.
Defensively speaking–the Chiefs are better against the rush than they are against the pass. The Chiefs were 15th against the rush and 20th in DVOA against the pass and have allowed 40 points over their two playoff games.
Key Injuries
- RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire-questionable
- WR Mecole Hardman-Out
- CB L’Jarius Sneed-questionable
- LB Willie Gay-questionable
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster-questionable
Philadelphia Eagles current form
Philadelphia is a short favorite in this contest–they finished 14-3 during the regular season, and two of those losses were without QB Jalen Hurts. The Eagles signal-caller threw for 3701 yards with 22 TDs and an additional 760 rushing yards and 13 TDs. Hurts has a sore shoulder that cost him two games toward the end of the season and probably the MVP award.
WRs AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are the primary passing weapons for Hurts, and the two combined for 183 receptions and 18 TDs on the season. TE Dallas Goedert and RB Miles Sanders have played roles in the passing game, but Brown and Smith are the main ones Kansas City has to worry about.
The Eagles have the best defense in the league, but they are much better vs. the pass than the rush but have allowed 14 points during the playoffs. Philadelphia ranks 1st in passing DVOA, 21st in rushing defense, and led the NFL in sacks.
Key Injuries
- OL Josh Sills-Out
Phil’s Best Bet on Super Bowl LVII
The Chiefs are a +105 moneyline underdog, and the Chiefs ML +105 is my best bet for Super Bowl LVII.
The Chiefs have played a much stronger schedule than Philly, and if the Eagles were to win would have the 4th easiest schedule of all 57 Super Bowl winners. That may have skewed the Eagles’ offensive and defensive numbers, and maybe the Philadelphia defense isn’t as good as their numbers say they are.
If there is anyone who can expose any flaws in the Eagles’ defense, it would be Mahomes. The Chiefs signal-caller and TE Kelce have a special relationship, and the two have hooked up for 48 TDs, and 6000+ receiving yards since 2017. The pair should carve up the Eagles’ deep zone coverage, and the Chiefs should be able to move the ball effectively against the overrated Philadelphia defense.
Finally, the Chiefs’ defense has faced some stiff competition this season. Hurts is a tough cookie who beats teams with his feet and arm, but he has a sore shoulder, and he’ll need to throw the football to beat Kansas City, and I don’t think he’ll be able to outscore the Kansas City defense.
Phil’s Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +105 (DraftKings)
