Seattle is second in the NFC West standings and enters Thursday night hoping to end a two-game losing streak. Dallas has won three straight heading into their matchup with Seattle and sports a 5-0 home mark this season.
ESPN Bet Arizona has set a 46.5 total, and we expect a high-scoring affair in Dallas. Please join me as I share my best three prop bets for the Seahawks at Dallas on November 30.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 3.5 Receptions (+115) at ESPN Bet
Seahawks wideout Jaxon Smith Njigba has a tough matchup Thursday against the second-best passing defense in the NFL. Dallas allows the fourth-fewest targets to wideouts and a second-best 9.7 receptions to wide receivers this season.
Smith-Njigba is having an awesome rookie season. He’s third in targets and receptions for Seattle but has caught four passes or more in just five of his 11 contests and has failed to exceed the bookies’ number in each of his last two.
One of the reasons for the declining reception numbers is the Seattle offensive line has allowed 14 sacks over the past five games and six times against San Francisco on Thanksgiving.
The other reason for this bet is Seattle quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has been strong at times but has four games this season with fewer than 200 passing yards.
Finally, Dallas boasts one of the best passing defenses in football. The Cowboys have defended 51 passes with a dozen interceptions, five pick-sixes, and 37 sacks. That defensive group will make life miserable for Smith, and as a result, Smith-Njigba will end his night with less than 3.5 receptions.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Prop: Under 3.5 Receptions (+115) at ESPN Bet
Dak Prescott Under 36.5 passing attempts (-118) at FanDuel
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott is having a solid season, but his passing attempts prop is much too high for this matchup.
Prescott has thrown 37 attempts or more in more than half of the Cowboys games this season. Dallas is expected to win this game by a wide margin, which should mean less throwing and more rushing the football.
The Cowboys signal-caller hasn’t attempted 37+ passes in his last four home games. Seattle allows 36.8 passing attempts per contest but allows 33.8 passing attempts in the away uniforms.
Dak Prescott Prop: Under 36.5 passing attempts (-118) at FanDuel Arizona
Jake Ferguson Under 3.5 receptions (+106) at FanDuel
It stands to reason that if Prescott throws fewer attempts than usual, Cowboy receivers will also see a limited number of targets, and I like this Under prop for Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson.
Ferguson has exceeded this prop number in five of the Cowboys’ 11 games but failed to clear 3.5 receptions in each of his last two and five of his past eight but has hauled in 3.5+ in three of the Cowboys’ five home games.
The Cowboys’ tight end has a tough matchup against a Seahawks passing defense, allowing 5.18 receptions per game to the tight-end position.
Finally, in a contest Dallas is expected to win by a large margin isn’t ideal for Ferguson. Seattle does a good enough job slowing down tight ends, and I believe they will slow down Ferguson just enough for him to finish the game with Under 3.5 receptions.
Jake Ferguson Prop: Under 3.5 receptions (+106) at FanDuel