Paul has been ruled out for at least the next three games, but the Suns are still a four-point favorite when they welcome the Nuggets for Game 3 of their best-of-seven series with Denver.
Phoenix is down 0-2 in the series and is +340 (DraftKings) underdog in this series and are now forced to play without their top playmaker in a must-win situation.
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns Preview
Denver has dominated this series, winning the first two games of this series with Phoenix by a +14 point differential. Phoenix did put up a fight in Game 2, but the Nuggets’ defense has been spectacular, and Phoenix doesn’t seem to have an answer for Nuggets All-Stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
The Nuggets have dominated the glass on both ends of the floor and have held the Suns to just 27% from downtown and 45% from the field. I don’t expect Phoenix to shoot that poorly tonight at home, but the Suns have to control the glass otherwise, they will lose this game tonight.
The other problem Phoenix had through the first two games was the three-point shooting of Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Gordon drained 57% of his triple attempts, and Caldwell-Pope knocked down 58% of his, but it’s hard to expect them to keep up this torrid shooting pace on the road tonight.
Suns guard Devin Booker has been spectacular during this series, averaging 31 points with seven dimes, and he’ll likely assume the playmaker role that normally would be shared with Paul. Kevin Durant has shot just 20% from behind the arc, and there isn’t a way in the world he’s not going to have a breakout game tonight.
Phil’s Best Bet: Phoenix Suns -4 -110 DraftKings
Head over to DraftKings, sign up for a new account, and receive $150 in free bets when you make a $5 wager, and when you do, we suggest you bet on Phoenix -4.
Tonight is do-or-die time for the Suns, but they should certainly win this game and cover the spread in a building they were 23-20-1 ATS this season.
Booker has been fantastic this series but tonight, Durant has to step up and lead the way–there is no way in the world Denver will hold the Slim Reaper to 20% shooting from downtown in a must-win game at home. Durant has a +125 Over 2.5 Three-Point FG prop I like a LOT, and with Paul out of the lineup, look for Durant to facilitate a bit more, which should benefit Booker and center Deandre Ayton.
Jokic and Murray are tough to beat, and Phoenix hasn’t done a good job containing either of them, but what has killed the Suns was the three-point barrage levied by Gordon and Caldwell-Pope, and it’s not realistic to expect them to shoot over 50% from deep in a playoff game on the road.
Finally, this is a must-win game for Phoenix, and I expect the Suns to come out firing tonight. They don’t want their season to end this way, and the team missing a starter is 6-0 ATS during these playoffs. I look for that trend to continue tonight and for the Suns to cover the -4 at home tonight. Phoenix Suns -4 -110 DraftKings
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