Arizona is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first place in the NL West, and Carroll has been instrumental to the Diamondbacks’ success this season.
Carroll’s combination of power and speed has helped him outpace his fellow rookie class. He is a legitimate five-tool player, and he has the potential to be a star in the major leagues for years to come.
— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2023
An injury could only prevent Carroll from winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award. However, he has been relatively healthy so far this season, but there is some cause for concern after Carroll re-injured his shoulder this weekend against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
If Carroll can stay healthy, he is the clear favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. He is the top offensive rookie in the National League and leads in home runs (18), runs (63), stolen bases (26), as well as slugging percentage (.549) and Wins Above Replacement (3.7).
Here are some other players who are also in the mix for the National League Rookie of the Year Award:
- Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds): De La Cruz saw his odds jump from +650 to +200 this weekend after stealing three bases in a single at-bat against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): The Reds shortstop is +2800 and is second in the NL in WAR with a .211 ISO over 235 plate appearances.
- Francisco Alvarez (New York Mets): The Mets rookie catcher is second among NL rookies in bombs (17) and boasts a 7.8 defensive WAR, making him the best rookie catcher in baseball.
Is Corbin Carroll a Good Bet to Win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year Award?
No, at -300, Carroll isn’t a good bet to win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year Award.
Carrol will likely be named as Rookie of the Year, but is it worth paying $300 to win $100? The shoulder injury is concerning, and with the way De La Cruz has been playing, -300 is anything but a safe bet to make.
Carroll has been with the Diamondbacks since Opening Day, and he’s made what was a young, improving Diamondbacks team maybe a year or two away from reaching the playoffs into an NL West contender tied with the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks center fielder jammed his knee in late April, slightly injured his shoulder in late May, and now this weekend, he re-injured his shoulder on a one-handed swing of the bat.
Carroll didn’t miss any weekend action, but shoulder injuries aren’t a new thing for him. Arizona won’t take any chances with their young star, and another injury could land Carroll on the IL, and $300 is out the door.
If Carroll remains healthy, he will win the award. He’s been consistent and has given the Diamondbacks a boost–if Arizona wins the NL West, it will likely be because of Carroll’s daily presence in the lineup. That being said, his injury history and the possibility of him missing time due to injury keep me off of this bet.
Finally, a better bet to make is De La Cruz +200 at DraftKings Arizona. The Reds outfielder has energized the Reds, and all eyes are on him. Suppose Carroll hits the IL for any length of time, and that is a real possibility.
In that case, +200 is gone forever because the Cincinnati outfielder would become the obvious favorite and likely winner.
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