If New Orleans can plunge all the way to the bottom of the standings or jump up in the lottery, they could land a transformative piece to complement Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, and the rest of their newly designated core. The past three draft lotteries have shown that teams with lower odds can defy expectations, and the Pelicans might have to rely on that trend considering their sheer talent might cost them valuable losses in the remainder of the season.
The Trend of Lottery Risers
Since the introduction of the current lottery odds system in 2019, unexpected movement has been a common theme. Looking at the past three years provides a blueprint for how the Pelicans could move up:
- 2024 Draft Lottery: The Atlanta Hawks jumped from the 10th-best odds all the way to No. 1, an improbable leap that completely shifted their direction.
- 2023 Draft Lottery: The Charlotte Hornets, despite entering with the fourth-best odds, secured the No. 2 pick, allowing them to land Brandon Miller. Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers moved from fifth to third, giving them Scoot Henderson.
- 2022 Draft Lottery: The Sacramento Kings made one of the biggest jumps, climbing from seventh to fourth, enabling them to draft Keegan Murray — who quickly became a key piece for a playoff-bound squad.
These jumps prove that the lottery is unpredictable, and New Orleans will have a chance to move into a prime position, even if they wind up winning more games than they intend to the rest of the year.
Addressing the Pelicans’ Biggest Needs
Regardless of where they pick, the Pelicans need a true lead guard to stabilize their offense. CJ McCollum has provided veteran scoring, but his playmaking isn’t at an elite level, and his defensive limitations allow mismatches. Dejounte Murray hasn’t proven that he can be a positive force for the Pels, nor has he shown that he can stay healthy.A young, dynamic point guard could solve those issues while injecting pace into a sometimes stagnant offense.
At center, the Pelicans also have concerns. Jonas Valančiūnas was far from a perfect player, but his interior presence has been sorely missed in the Big Easy this season. New Orleans struck gold with Yves Missi, but he’s still far from ready to anchor a championship-level defense full-time. Adding another big man, preferably one with a bit more bulk, either through the draft or in a trade would help them keep a solid defensive unit on the court at all times.
If New Orleans lands in the top three, they’ll have access to the draft’s premier talents. Even if they don’t get the No. 1 pick, this class has plenty of talent to ensure that they can add a game-changing prospect at one of their positions of needs, so long as they don’t have a massive backslide either in the standings or in the lottery.
The Pelicans have the pieces to be a serious contender as early as next season, but they need stability in the backcourt and defensive improvements in the frontcourt. The right draft pick could provide that missing piece, or at least give them the trade flexibility to find one.
The past three lotteries have shown that the unexpected happens more often than not. If the Pelicans get lucky, this could be the moment that transforms their future.
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